(CAPITOL CITY NOW) – Whether you drink domestic beer or an import, there has been a worry about tariffs on raw materials.

“Currently, under the USMCA – the United States Mexico Canada Agreement – there was a concern on barley being taxed,” says Aaron Staples, an assistant professor of agribusiness management at the University of Illinois. “The Brewers’ Association estimates that roughly forty percent of the barley used by craft growers comes from Canada, so there was a lot of concern about that. Luckily, it is currently exempt.”

Staples says the beer business is not as it used to be.

“There is a rise in craft brewers, going from roughly 3,000 craft brewers in 2013 to close to 10,000 now,” says Staples. “There has been this pivot toward imported beers, with a market share in the U.S. by volume has increased from roughly fourteen percent to 24 percent, and a pivot toward Mexican lagers, for instance.”

Staples says eventually, brewers may have to pass on the increase to customers.

Staples’ study is here.